John Graunt (April 24,1620-April 18, 1674) was one of the first demographers, though by profession he was a haberdasher. Born in London, Graunt, along with William Petty, developed early human statistical and census methods that later provided a framework for modern demography. He is credited with producing the first life table, giving probabilities of survival to each age. Graunt is also considered as one of the first experts in Epidemiology, since his famous book was concerned mostly with public health statistics.

His book Natural and Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortality (1662) used analysis of the mortality rolls in early modern London as Charles II and other officials attempted to create a system to warn of the onset and spread of bubonic plague in the city. Though the system was never truly created, Graunt's work in studying the rolls resulted in the first statistically-based estimation of the population of London.

The erudition of the Observations led Graunt to the Royal Society, where he presented his work and was subsequently elected a fellow.

Graunt died, reportedly of jaundice and liver disease, in April 1674 in London.

References

For Graunt's place in the history of statistics see

• Heyde, C. C. (2001) John Graunt, Statisticians of the Centuries (ed. C. C. Heyde and E. Seneta) pp. 14-16. New York: Springer.
• Hald, A. (1990) A History of Probability and Statistics and their applications before 1750, New York: Wiley. Chapter 7, John Graunt and the Observations upon the Bills of Mortality, 1662.
• Hacking, I. (1975) The Emergence of Probability, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press: Chapter 12, Political Arithmetic 1662.

For his place in the history of epidemiology see

• Morabia, Alfredo. ed. (2004) A History of Epidemiologic Methods and Concepts. Basel, Birkhauser Verlag. Part I.

Other references:

External links

• John Graunt (1620-1674) Text of the "Observations" and other Graunt materials are available on Ed Stephan's website
• Ed Stephan's Timeline of Demography Highlights in the history of demography from 3800 BC to 2000 AD

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